After producing automation scores, we engaged our networks to develop next generation skills-based labor market information. We convened nine experts to help better identify the various ways that technology change differentially affects regions and industries, the nature of occupational transformation due to automation, and, for manufacturing specifically, the increase in technology-related roles despite an overall decline in manufacturing jobs over the last 20 years. Based on these observations, initial recommendations for public LMI data systems and projection analysts include:
- Increase integration of real time data, not just on skills, but also industry and technology change that informs skill requirements, as well as on the function of job chains that shape supply of skill
- Demonstrate more practical modeling for planning purposes, such as consideration of multiple scenarios, to help regional decision makers consider various skill futures
- Reflect on past predictions and real results, demonstrating a learning mindset that competitive regions must adopt to respond effectively to technology change
Four papers commissioned for the Projections Managment Partnership (PMP) in 2023 informed these recommendations. Summaries and the papers are available below. We also thank Manav Raj and Robert Seamans for their work and paper, How will Language Modelers like ChatGPT Affect Occupations and Industries? as well as Yustina Saleh, Anuraag Singh, Michael J. Handel, Allison Forbes, Tucker Plumlee, and Jacob Stenstrom for participating in the discussion and refining the recommendations.
More information about the convening can be found here.
Tools for Regional Competitiveness to Meet an Era of Labor Scarcity by Christophe Combemale
This report places regional economic development in the context of the broader national labor market, providing tools for evaluating regional capabilities. Regional skill demands do not always line up with national trends. These differences can be driven by rates in technology adoption and innovation and lead to different rates of recovery between regions. We also are currently living in a time of contrasts in the national labor market, low unemployment, low labor force participation rate, and a high vacancy rate.
Tools for Regional Competitiveness to Meet an Era of Labor Scarcity
The Digitalization of the U.S. Labor Market: Lessons from Technology Adoption and Advanced Manufacturing Initiatives in Indiana by Leighton Johnson
While employment in the Manufacturing industry is declining, some technology related roles are expanding employment. The effects of automation are leading to an increasing digitalization of the American factory. The COVID pandemic cleared showed the differences in factories that had embraced automation and those that had not. This report examines these effects on the labor market and concludes with recommendations for labor market data tools.
New Data Sources and Opportunities for Forecasting Labor Demand and Skills Mix by Henry Renski
Online job postings allow for real-time LMI analysis, as well as tracking the long-term demand for various occupations and skills. However, this practice is not without risks and drawbacks. This report evaluates ways that that this data can be best used to make labor market predictions, as well as the potential risks of relying too heavily on these new data sources.
New Data Sources and Opportunities for Forecasting Labor Demand and Skills Mix
Sector-specific Federal Workforce Development Efforts by Andrew Reamer
For the first time in recent memory the Federal Government is expanding its role in workforce development, from the supply and demand side. This pivot to include the demand side of workforce development can inform and improve the accuracy of occupational projections. This report describes the efforts of 13 programs across seven federal agencies to better understand the efforts and approaches of the various Federal agencies.